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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/12/19 0232Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09; AMSU; RADAR; RAOBS; KH . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...TROPICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES IR IMAGERY DEPICT COLD AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO KAUAI, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. AMSU DEPICTS EXCESSIVE TPW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, RANGING FROM 2 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND TO NEARLY 2.5 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. THE 00Z RAOB FROM PHLI SHOWS TPW OF 2.19 INCHES WITH OVER 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE. ALL OF THIS, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND, SUGGESTS RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN OAHU MOVING WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE LESSER RAIN RATES, BUT IS WORTH A MENTION AS IT MOVES TOWARD KAUAI. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-0600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION ACROSS KAUAI WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AXIS OF LESSER CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOVING NORTH AS WELL FROM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY CLEAR KAUAI BY 0400Z. HOWEVER, FURTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVERGENT FEATURE OBSERVED BETWEEN OAHU AND KAUAI, WITH A PORTION OF THIS FEATURE HANGING BACK ACROSS OAHU. THIS FEATURE WOULD LIKELY IMPACT KAUAI AROUND 0400Z AND PASS THROUGH AROUND 0600Z. THE LARGE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS MAINTAINING THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILE. AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH, THE RIDGE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AND PRONG DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BIG ISLAND ON THE LATEST WV IMAGERY. THE SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE...ALONG WITH AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS (SUCH AS THE NIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND, ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS). . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2268 16046 2213 15795 2124 15793 2160 16032 . NNNN |
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