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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/19 0724Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 IR/WV 07Z; AMSU/SSMIS; RADAR, RAOB; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GOES 16 IR AND WV CHANNELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE COASTLINE. CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE WEST AND THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD, DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS INDICATED USING WV IMAGERY , WHILE LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z RAOB INDICATED SEVERAL FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL: NEARLY 3500 J/KG CAPE, 2.0 INCH PW QUANTITIES, BUOYANT -8 LI. GLOBAL HYDRO ESTIMATOR DATA INDICATED 40 MILLIMETERS PER HOUR RATES OF RAINFALL. GROWING THUNDERSTORM TOPS IN AERIAL COVERAGE SHOW SIGNS OF COOLING ALOFT CREATING DESTABILIZATION IN THE IR IMAGERY, WHILE WATER VAPOR CHANNELS INDICATED MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE ROTATION TO THE WEST DRAWS DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK WINDS ALOFT AT 250MB AND DIVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND, WHILE LOWER LEVEL EAST WINDS AT 850MB MAINTAIN A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE. SOME RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRESENT CONSIDERING INSTABILITY AND HIGHER MOISTURE. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0725-1230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST RECENT LIGHTNING DATA DOES SHOW ACTIVITY DIMINISHING; HOWEVER, ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY DOES NOT NECESSARILY CORRELATE TO RAINFALL RATES, BUT DOES INDICATE THE STORM HAS WEAKENED JUST A BIT THERE IS SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, RESULTING IN RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6730 1786 6752 1786 6562 1853 6543 1855 6731 . NNNN |
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