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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/17/19 1010Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 191117/0950 GOES17 CH09 WV_6.9 . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI ISLAND . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES17 IR AND WV IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF COLD HIGH CLOUD TOPS WITH REPEAT PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT WAS AND IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE KAUAI ISLAND REGION IN THE NEAR TERM. UA RAOB ANALYSIS EARLIER OBSERVED TPW NEAR 2.00" AND SBCAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG WHICH WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS AIDING IN STRONG LOCALLY HEAVY TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOVING OVER KAUAI ISLAND WITH REPEAT CONVECTION THE PAST FEW HOURS. FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICE EARLIER THIS EVENING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1000-1400Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS IF THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. KAUAI ISLAND CURRENTLY AS WELL AS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE UNDER HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK. THE BIG ISLAND REGION LIKELY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE TAIL END REGION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND BIG ISLAND REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2349 16100 2263 15452 1853 15425 1795 16068 . NNNN |
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