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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/19/19 0421Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 IR; AMSU PW; GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23.5N/158.5W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED USING RAOB OBSERVATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII. A BROADENING BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND, WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING AS IT TRAVELS WITHIN THE PLUME OF WATER VAPOR EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING TOPS OVER THE BIG ISLAND, AND TO THE SOUTH, AS THE ADVANCING WAVE GENERATES PVA IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PW ESTIMATES CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES PER SSMIS/AMSU SENSORS AND GLOBAL HYDRO ESTIMATOR RATES CLOSE TO 0.5 IN/HOUR WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR PLUME, A 700 MB DEW POINT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE BIG ISLAND PHTO TO PHLI WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A DESTABILIZING MECHANISM AS A 10 CELSIUS DEGREE GRADIENT -17C TO -10C RESPECTIVELY WOULD GENERATE COOLER EVAPORATIVE TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN BETTER RAINFALL RATES. AS LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -10C AT 500 MB AND CAPE EXCEEDING 2900 J/KG REPRESENTS THE STABILITY PARAMETERS OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE A FACTOR AS A JET STREAK INDICATED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SPEED STREAK FAVORABLY PLACED TO ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE COOLING TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATED AS WELL UPSTREAM AS THE WAVE ADVANCES NORTH TOWARD HAWAII. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0420-0900Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LOCAL RADAR OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOWS SOME WINDWARD SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND IS BEING PICKED UP BY OTHER ISLANDS RADAR SHOWING CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS. AS A WAVE ADVANCES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, WITH LOCALIZED EFFECTS WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2248 15994 2245 15339 1881 15499 1888 16145 2247 15994 . NNNN |
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