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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/22/19 0259Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: TJSJ RADAR 0255Z; GOES 16 WV; SSMIS/AMSU; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H25 UPPER AIR LEVEL WIND FLOW ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO AND SHORT WAVE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE QUANTITIES ARE FAVORABLE WITH 85H THETA VALUES OF 336K CENTERED OVER PR/USVI. THE TJSJ BALLOON SOUNDING INDICATED 2000 J/KG FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY MADE AVAILABLE, LIFTED INDEX -6C AND 2.02 INCH PW. THE S/WV WILL GENERATE LIFT AS THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVELS SOUTH, WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE CITY OF SAN JUAN AND EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO. THE DYNAMIC LIFT PRODUCED WITH THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SW-NE ORIENTED H25 35KT JET STREAK OVER PUERTO RICO AS WINDS AT THE H85 LEVEL STEER THE STORMS SOUTHWARD MAY LIFT RELATIVELY MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR UPWARDS, GENERATING DECENT RAINFALL RATES, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF FLASH FLOODING AS THE STORMS PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVER PUERTO RICO. SSMIS/AMSU PW ESTIMATES EXCEED 2.5 INCHES, MEANING US MUCH AS TWO AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-0430Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO MAY PRODUCE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1861 6720 1861 6719 1860 6508 1783 6533 1784 6752 . NNNN |
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