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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/12/20 0300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17; HYDROESTIMATOR; AMSU/SSMIS; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17 MESO SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. ANALYSIS OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250MB OVER HAWAII SUPPORTING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND MASS EVACUATION ALOFT. A FLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 850/700MB ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL ALLOW WINDWARD AREAS TO RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL AND THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND SOILS ARE SATURATED. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES PER HOUR INDICATED TOTALS OVER AN INCH PER HOUR WITH TWO INCH PER HOUR PIXELS EMBEDDED OVER THE BIG ISLAND. SSMIS/AMSU SATELLITE MOISTURE SENSOR DATA INDICATED A RANGE IN PW QUANTITIES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES EXTENDING ALONG ALL OF HAWAII. THE BALLOON SOUNDINGS AT LIHUE AND HILO BOTH INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME PARAMETERS INDICATING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE; FURTHERMORE, SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE IN ADDITION TO THE STEADY FLUX OF WATER VAPOR AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-1200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND WITH MORE MOISTURE UP STREAM, AND A SLOWLY EVOLVING WEATHER SYSTEM. FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN BECAUSE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY MOIST FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL, AND MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2253 15823 1871 15334 1867 15623 2250 16124 2251 16125 . NNNN |
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