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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/13/20 1834Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV/VIS 18Z; AMSU 89 GHz; SSMIS/AMSU PW; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV ENTERING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SUPPLYING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, GENERATING UPWARD MOTIONS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS INDICATED BY GROWING TOPS OF THE STORMS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF THE ISLAND AT THE MOMENT. THE PW QUANTITIES RANGE FROM 1.4 INCHES TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES PER SSMIS/AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED AMOUNTS, SIMILAR TO MORNING RAOB SOUNDING MEASUREMENTS. ENERGY AVAILABLE STARTED AT 1350 J/KG THIS MORNING WITH A -5 LI INDICATING A DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR THE SUPPORT OF BUOYANT CURRENTS AND UPWARD MOTION, WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ON CONFLUENT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH SETS THE STAGE FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, RESULTING IN UPWARD MOTIONS IN A MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT; THEREFORE, A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1835-2035Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO RICO AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED WITH FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1856 6722 1791 6746 1791 6537 1855 6522 1855 6723 . NNNN |
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