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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/15/20 0155Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 200315/0140 GOES17 CH01 VIS_0.47 . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND AS WELL AS THE MAUI/OAHU REGION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES17 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION PRESENT DUE TO A DEVELOPING KONA LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND. THE KONA LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST UA RAOB DATA FROM THE BIG ISLAND OBSERVED TPW GREATER THAN 1.50" AND SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. THE MOST RECENT RADAR LOOPS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BECOME MORE QUIET WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OBSERVED EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH 1 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED FROM WESTERN BIG ISLAND MESO NETWORK STATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS PRESENT NEAR AND OVER PARTS OF THE MAUI AND OAHU REGION. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-1000Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK APPEARS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE EXACTLY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND HOW LONG THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL RISK HOWEVER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND REGION AND POSSIBLY THE MAUI AND OAHU REGION OVER WESTERN FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2277 16078 2240 15448 1798 15390 1752 16080 . NNNN |
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