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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/16/20 0056Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 200316/0040 GOES17 CH13 IR_10.4 . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEVELOPING KONA LOW AFFECTING OAHU ISLAND . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES17 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS IMPACTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN OAHU ISLAND SEEN IN RECENT RADAR LOOPS. THE LATEST UPPER AIR RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM THE REGION OBSERVED TPW GREATER THAN 1.40" AND SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG SUPPORTING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG SOUTHERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STRONG KONA LOW THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING. HOURLY RAINFALL REPORTS FROM WFO HONOLULU AND OAHU ISLAND MESO NETWORK STATIONS OBSERVED 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...KONA LOW IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATER AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH LIKELY COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND DEVELOP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY THIS WEEK. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIME FRAME AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT COULD IMPACT AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION WITH SLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS HIGH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS IMPACTED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN OAHU AS WELL AS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER WESTERN OAHU ISLAND OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2313 16168 2267 15395 1819 15327 1765 16168 . NNNN |
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