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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/16/20 1329Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 WV/IR_10.35 1310Z; HYDROESTIMATOR; AMSU 89GHz; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL STRENGTHENING KONA LOW WILL AFFECT THE HAWAII ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 17 IMAGERY IN THE WV AND IR SHOWS COOLING TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS A KONA LOW APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TWELVE HOURS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC AREA OF ROTATION TRAVELING TO THE SE FROM 27N/173W TO 25N/170W, AS A COMPACT S/WV WITH THE APPROACHING STORM MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE STORM IS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. PHKI PROFILER WINDS ARE BACKING AT 850MB WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM 20-35KTS. LIHUE RAOB SOUNDING MEASURED 1.5 INCHES PW AND OVER 1250J/Kg CAPE, 5H LIFTED INDEX -6C, TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS SHOWING NARROW PROFILES UP TO 10,000 FEET. SATELLITE DERIVED SSMIS/AMSU PW ESTIMATES OF 1.75 IN. WITHIN THE STREAM OF WATER VAPOR WITH EMBEDDED RAINFALL RATES IN THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR; HOWEVER, THE RATES SEEM A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND HIGHER IS QUITE REALISTIC WITH TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE BEST FORCING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1330-2030Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING IS OCCURRING AS HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HIGHER RADAR ECHOES SEEN IN EMBEDDED CELLS ON RADAR WILL FIRST BRING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS KAUAI AND NIIHAU, SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OF MAUI AND MOLOKAI LATER IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE KONA LOW STORM. THE SOUTH FACING TERRAIN WILL BE MOST IMMEDIATELY AFFECTED BASED ON WIND PROFILER TRENDS. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH THE REST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER AFFECTED BY THE STORM. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2241 15860 1881 15282 1883 15567 2238 16127 2240 16129 . NNNN |
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