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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/17/20 0103Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST CH 02/09/13 0040Z;AMSU 2108Z;PHLI RAOB;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...KONA LOW WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER WESTERN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A WELL-DEFINED KONA LOW CENTERED NEAR 23.5N/168W SEEN IN G17 WV IMAGERY IS RESULTING IN BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, BRINGING A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH A MAXIMUM OF 1.9 INCHES OF PW FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS SEEN IN A RECENT AMSU PASS. THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE 00Z PHLI SOUNDING, WHICH DEPICTS PW OF 1.77 INCHES. THIS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES NEAR-SATURATION FROM THE SFC TO 300MB AND CAPE OF ALMOST 1800 J/KG. G17 VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CONVERGENCE ALONG A N-S LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG 163W. THIS LINE IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS SEEN IN IR IMAGERY OVER MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0100-1000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE KONA LOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYNOPTIC FLOW EFFECTIVELY THE SAME, LEADING TO CONTINUOUS OR REPEATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS FROM OAHU WEST. THE HIGHER PW WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN PLACES. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS ELEVATED. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2340 16027 2007 15411 1803 15543 2154 16105 2333 16025 . NNNN |
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