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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/17/20 1359Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR; GOES 17 1340Z; RADAR 1356Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE KONA LOWS INFLUENCE ON THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU HAS BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS. A PERSISTENT WATER VAPOR STREAM SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS COOLING CLOUD TOPS INDICATED ON IR CHANNELS AND AN AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS, CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM, SHOWS SIGNS OF DRIFTING SLOWLY, RETROGRADING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SSMIS/AMSU PW QUANTITIES ARE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. LIHUE 12Z RAOB INDICATED A RELATIVELY SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILE PW THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING WITH AMPLE ENERGY AVAILABLE, NEGATIVELY BUOYANT LI QUANTITY OF -4C AND PW=1.8 IN. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR DATA, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT UNRELIABLE REGARDING TRUE QUANTITIES, DOES SHOW A GROWING AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN AN WEST TO EAST LINE OF HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION FROM THE STORM EASTWARD TOWARDS OAHU, INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT MORE OF HAWAII AS THE STORMS MOVES SLOWLY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS EVIDENT WITH THE FANNING OUT OF THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. EMBEDDED VORTICES TRAVELING THROUGH A DEEP CHANNEL OF MOISTURE WILL AID UPWARD LIFT IN A MOIST, THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING KONA LOW STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE RESULT. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-2100Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN HAVE BEEN UNDER AN EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WARNING, SPECIFICALLY KAUAI COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE KONA STORM MOVES CLOSER OAHU, MOLOKAI AND MAUI ARE NEXT TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HIGHER TERRAIN FACING IN THAT DIRECTION, MAY MAKE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, AND OTHER ISLANDS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2301 15935 1975 15434 1855 15532 2185 16034 2185 16031 . NNNN |
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