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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/18/20 1459Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 1430Z; RADAR; OBSERVATIONS; 12Z PHTO RAOB; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17 (WEST) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A PERSISTENT STREAM OF WATER VAPOR FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS FORMING WEST OF THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU. THE CIRA LAYERED TPW PRODUCT AND BLENDED TPW INDICATED A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF DEEP EMBEDDED TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IN THE WATER VAPOR PLUME, AT THE HIGH END OF ESTIMATED PW QUANTITIES, ABOVE 2.50 INCHES. THE UPPER SYSTEM IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OF THE JET STREAM ALLOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT, THUS EXTENDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THE MORNING PHTO SOUNDING INDICATED A SATURATED VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE AND 2.10 INCH PW. CURRENTLY CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE MOVING FROM SSW-NNE TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A DEVELOPING LINE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS WEST OF NIIHAU AND LANAI SLOWLY DRIFTING CLOSER, AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER PART OF THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE A MAXIMUM SOUTH OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL DEVELOPING THERE; HOWEVER THE MOST IMMEDIATE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS OVER HAWAII ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-0100Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE BIG ISLAND WITH MORE RAINFALL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM AND THE CONTINUAL FORCING OF MOISTURE UP STEEP TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2252 16092 2252 15872 1820 15253 1820 15585 2240 16084 . NNNN |
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