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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/19/20 0130Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 VIS/IR 0100Z; BLTPW/AMSU/SSMIS; RADAR; OBS; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HAWAII . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ROAB ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING KAUAI AND OAHU WITH RAIN ON THE WESTERN END OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. SATELLITE DERI VED MOISTURE AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES COMPARES TO 1.6 MEASURED BY THE RAOB SOUNDING. BLOSSOMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLANDS AND A GRADIENT OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DERIVED BY SATELLITE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER KAUAI AND OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND WHERE THE NNE-SSW ORIENTED AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS A MAXIMUM AND GOOD MOISTURE QUANTITIES RESIDE WITH 1.5 INCHES PER RAOB SOUNDING 2.0 PER AMSU. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS 250/850 OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLANDS WITH DIFFLUENCE INDICATED BY THE SATELLITE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG A LINE OF CONVECTION AND GROWING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGES. WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER HAWAII ISLAND ARE BEST, LOW LEVEL 850 MB FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IMPACTING THE TERRAIN, AND RECENT RADAR SHOWS APPROACHING ACTIVITY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, THEREFORE. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0130-0730Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 23N/167W AT 01Z DRAWS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AHEAD OF A KONA LOW THAT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. RADAR SHOWS APPROACHING CONVECTION, AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND MAY RESULT IN UPWARD FORCING AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WHEREAS ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDS AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN ELONGATED BANDS OF CONVECTION, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING PRODUCING RAIN. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2376 15975 1952 15378 1764 15540 2206 16153 2207 16150 . NNNN |
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