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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/19/20 1545Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1500Z JS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...SATELLITE DISCUSSION CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ISLANDS. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS OVERALL LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION CENTER AROUND 25N167W THOUGH LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE A SLIGHT RETROGRADE OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. A LOOK AT THE TPW TRENDS PER MICROWAVE DATA REVEALS A CONTINUED PERSISTENT INFLUX OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE SW-SE WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY CONFLUENCE NOTED AT THE LOWER LEVELS DIRECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS. THE HIGHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A PW VALUE NEAR 1.5" ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SATURATED COLUMN. HOWEVER, NOT ALL PARAMETERS ARE POSITIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE LIHUE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MEAGER CAPE (UNDER 50J/KG) AND THE PRESENCE OF CINH WITH INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MOST IMMEDIATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN EXISTS WITH WHAT BECOMES OF THE WELL DEFINED ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS. IR TRENDS THOUGH HAVE SHOWN THE CORE OF THIS LINE IS NOT MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS DESCRIBED ABOVE ON THE OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE CORE OF THE PRIMARY LINE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS, BELIEVE THAT GOING FORWARD AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND BEYOND, NOT DISCOUNTING THAT THERE STILL COULD BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WESTERN AND/OR CENTRAL ISLANDS BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING AS OF YET IN SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IS LIKELY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2288 16086 2286 15633 2004 15657 2020 16077 . NNNN |
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