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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/23/20 1330Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 EAST 1316Z; AMSU 1300Z; RADAR; TJSJ RAOB; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES EAST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AS AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. SSMIS/AMSU PW ESTIMATES OF 1.90 INCHES COMPARED TO THE TJSJ RAOB MEASUREMENT 1.99 INCHES, WITH A NARROW SOUNDING INDICATING A RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE WITH A LAYER OF MID LEVEL DRIER AIR AND UNSTABLE -4C LIFTED INDEX. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF MORE MOISTURE TOWARDS PUERTO RICO/USVI WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE FORMING WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED RADAR ECHOES IN SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE ISLAND FROM EAST TO WEST. COOLING CLOUD TOPS WERE INDICATED IN GOES IMAGERY RECENTLY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE CROSSES PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI; FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE POSITIONED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK, A FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPWARD DYNAMIC LIFT, OVER PUERTO RICO/USVI FOR TODAY. 850 MB WINDS DIRECTLY OPPOSE THE 250 MB WINDS FEEDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS EVACUATE MASS ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR LONGER SUSTAINED BANDS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT 700 MB OVER PUERTO RICO DRAWS MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1330-2030Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN FLASH FLOODING WITH AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO CONSIDER, REGARDING EXCESSIVE RAIN. AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES THE POTENTIAL ENERGY AVAILABLE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM 500 J/KG THIS MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GFS DOES ALSO INDICATE HIGHER VALUES OF MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST, WITH GROWING THUNDERSTORM TOPS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1858 6721 1857 6719 1853 6507 1784 6529 1787 6751 . NNNN |
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