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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/28/20 0858Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES WEST:0830Z JS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS WITH SYSTEM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NW OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS SHOWN MORE OF A WESTWARD OR WSW COMPONENT WITH ITS MOVEMENT AS VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, SATELLITE DATA REVEALS CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE CIRCULATION NW OF THE STATE PLACES VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE ISLANDS IN A FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. A LOOK AT THE RECENT TRENDS FROM MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. AMSU PW VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 1.5" NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY MAX POOLED NEAR AND NW OF KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIHUE SHOWS THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 500MB WITH SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING NO CINH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE INDICATIVE OF A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0900-1500Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AT THIS TIME, THE MOST NOTABLE CONVECTION RESIDES WITH LARGER CLUSTERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF KAUAI THOUGH A FEW ENHANCED CELLS HAVE AFFECTED OAHU AND NIIHAU AND RECENT IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN CU AGITATION AND CELL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI. NOT SEEING ANY IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY N OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS SINKING SOUTHWARD SO THE SHORTER TERM THREAT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD APPEAR MOST LIKELY FROM THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON OAHU/KAUAI OR OVERSPREADING THESE ISLANDS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION BEING MORE TO THE WEST AND NOT TOWARD THE ISLANDS, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BEYOND THIS SHORTER TERM OUTLOOK, BELIEVE THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION MAY LOOP BACK AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT AS THE VORT LOBE CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN FLANK SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND HEIGHTS BUILD DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT. THAT WOULD ENSURE THE BETTER FORCING AND AFOREMENTIONED LOWER LEVEL TROF/CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS PROLONGING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2263 15713 2055 15723 2062 16056 2257 16056 . NNNN |
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