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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/06/20 0113Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 0030Z; TJSJ 00Z RAOB; AMSU 2310Z; GPSTPW 2300Z; JUA RADAR 0104Z; KH . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND AREAS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE BASES ARE ONLY SLOWLY MOVING OFF TOWARD THE EAST WHILE THE MID-LEVEL PORTION OF THESE CELLS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH MORE CELERITY. TPW HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES REACHING 1.65 INCHES. THE 00Z RAOB FROM TJSJ SHOWS TPW AT 2.17 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THE RAOB LIKELY WENT THROUGH SOME OF THE CONVECTION ON ITS ASCENT, INFLATING THAT VALUE. EVEN SO, TPW IS PROBABLY IN THE 1.7-1.8 INCH RANGE AT THIS POINT. THE 00Z RAOB ALSO SHOWED ESSENTIALLY 1500 J/KG CAPE WITH NO CINH, WHICH WILL HELP IN REALIZING MUCH OF THE CURRENT TPW IN PLACE. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0115-0400Z...MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR OUT OF SAN JUAN HAS SHOWED TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT, ONE OVER SAN JUAN THAT HAS MOVED OFF TOWARD THE EAST AND HAS WEAKENED SOME AND A SECOND AREA SOUTH OF SAN JUAN THAT SHOWS SIGNS OF MAINTENANCE OR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF SOMEWHAT SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FURTHER MODERATE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOVING OVER AND ALMOST STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN METRO AREA, WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT EXISTS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1872 6726 1847 6640 1804 6660 1781 6693 1781 6718 1844 6742 . NNNN |
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