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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/15/20 0200Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES WEST 17 0140Z; SSMIS/AMSU; RADAR; OBS/RAOB; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH IS EVIDENT WITH EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY ROTATING, MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, PERHAPS INTENSIFYING AND INVIGORATING DYNAMIC LIFT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII. ENERGY IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 3150J/KG CAPE AT PHTO RAOB SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. PW ESTIMATES ARE AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AND 2.0 INCHES OVERALL COMPARED TO UNDER 1.5 INCHES MEASURED; HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO RESIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS DETERMINED BY REMOTE SENSING. FURTHERMORE, SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS SHOWS AN AXIS OF BETTER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH THE BEST GRADIENT FROM MOLOKAI EASTWARD. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE INFLUENTIAL IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC LIFT AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION, LEADING TO A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. 5H LIFTED INDEX VALUES INDICATE BUOYANT UPWARD MOTION IS FAVORABLE IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN RESULTING IN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COOLING TOPS OF THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN AND EMBEDDED SPIN WITHIN THE CLOUDS INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND OVER OAHU AND DISTANT LIGHTING REPORTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BRADSHAW AFB IN RECENT METAR OBS. RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF SPIN WITHIN THE RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING HAWAII; CONSEQUENTLY, HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2243 15844 1833 15283 1831 15587 2237 16105 2237 16107 . NNNN |
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