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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/10/20 1950Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 1930Z;SSMIS/AMSU 1730Z;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING . 1. SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 16 SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AS A GROWING STORM FORMING BECUUSE OF AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PROVIDING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION RESULTING IN UPWARD ATMOSPHERIC MOTIONS THAT IS TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN ADDITION TO LIFT FROM A TROUGH SEEN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTH NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION. SSMIS/AMSU PW ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 1.67 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.75 PER THE 12Z TJSJ RAOB WITH 1750 J/KG+ ENERGY AND -4 500MB LI; THEREFORE, THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD FAVOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CONVECTIVE STORMS. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH RECENT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL AS THE S/WV APPROACHES. 850MB THETA E , A GOOD MEASURE OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE, NEAR 334K WITH A GRADIENT AND DIVERGING CONTOURS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A THETA E RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO SHOULD AID THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT, RESULTING IN HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1950-2250Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LOCAL TJSJ RADAR IS UNAVAILABLE TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH ANALYSTS AT THE MOMENT, BUT RECENT GOES WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO CURRENTLY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6549 1791 6565 1789 6745 1854 6719 1855 6720 . NNNN |
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