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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/12/20 0450Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16;SSMIS/AMSU PW; RADAR;OBS;RAOB;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 16 AT 04Z SHOWS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO AT THE MOMENT. WV QUANTITIES EXCEED TWO INCHES FROM REMOTELY SENSED DATA PER AMSU PW SENSORS, WITH THE DATA SHOWING HIGH PW AMOUNTS WITHIN THE WAVE AS IT IMPACTS PUERTO RICO ISLAND. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND. A GRADIENT 850MB THETA E VALUES WITH 328K CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO/USVI AND 340K OVER THE ANTILLES BEING ADVECTED TOWARDS PR, WHICH MAY BE A FACTOR CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO PVA THAT WILL ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY RESULTING FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR 17.5N/62.5N AT THE MOMENT CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI INTO THE MORNING. AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY HIGHER H85 THETA E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE BRINGING IN MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO PUERTO RICO AND USVI. THE TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL H85 TD QUANTITIES WHILE 7H TD VALUES WERE DRY IN COMPARISON, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION BY VIRTUE OF EVAPORATION AND COOLING ALOFT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO IN CANYONS AND HILLS, AND IN THE URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0450Z-1200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RADAR FROM TJSJ SHOWS THE FIRST RAIN BANDS WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO. LIFT GENERATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1853 6722 1853 6722 1851 6525 1790 6539 1790 6738 . NNNN |
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