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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/26/20 1625Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 IR 10.4;AMSU PW 15Z; RADAR 1619Z;RAOB 12Z; . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING HURRICANE DOUGLASS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES WEST 17 SHOWS APPROACHING HURRICANE DOUGLASS THAT WILL IMPACT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LATER. IN THE NEAR TERM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ARRIVING WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED PW QUANTITIES ARE NEAR 2.25 INCHES, CONSISTENT WITH THE PHTO SOUNDING OF 2.2 IN PW. AMSURR DATA SHOWING 0.55-0.65 IN/HR RATES REMOTELY SENSED IN THE CENTER OF HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE STORM NEAR 20.7N 154.3W. CONSIDERING ITS OVER THE OCEAN, EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES ARE GOING TO BE HIGHER WITH FORCING IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE AXIS OF BEST SURFACE MOISTURE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WITH PW AMOUNTS OF 1.67 INCH AND ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR DATA INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE IS CENTERED AT 15Z NEAR 20.7N 154.7W, WITH THE EDGE OF BETTER RAINFALL RATES READY TO IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, WITH A WEST NORTHWEST TREND WHILE HURRICANE DOUGLASS MAKES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LIKELY. HIGH 850MB THETA E QUANTITIES 340K AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 16,400 FEET WILL LEAD TO EXPECTED WARM TROPICAL RAINFALL PROCESSES OF COLLISION AND COALESCENCE OF MANY DROPLETS OF MANY SIZES, LEADING TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR HAWAII AS HURRICANE DOUGLASS BRINGS FLASH FLOODING RAINFALL. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE DOUGLASS IMPACTING THE EAST END OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AT 1619Z. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1625-0115Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LOCAL RADARS ACROSS HAWAII ARE SHOWING RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOUGLASS, EXCEPT THE WESTERN MOST ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WITH THE HURRICANE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII ISLAND, MAUI AND MOLOKAI TODAY AND OAHU AND KAUAI LATER THIS EVENING. RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE SHORTLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND AS THE STORMS DIRECT IMPACT BRINGS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH HIGH DEGREE OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND OTHER AREAS AS WELL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2249 16186 2248 15812 1861 15307 1855 15720 2246 16188 . NNNN |
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