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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/20 0400Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV_6.9;IR 11.2 0220Z; GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING TS ISAIAS PUERTO RICO/USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... GOES 16 E SATELLITE SHOWS A GROWING TROPICAL STORM WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO WITH APPROACHING TS ISAIAS. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF ISAIAS WITH BRIGHTENING PIXELS INDICATING THE TROPICAL STORMS RAINFALL RATES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE WITH A TWO HOUR TREND FROM 15.2N/65.2W 0030Z TO 16N/65.9W 0245Z OF THE BRIGHTEST PIXELS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF PUERTO RICO. GOES16 IR AND WV CHANNEL SATELLITE SHOWS THE STORMS APPROACH WITH COOLER TOPS MOVING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF MOISTURE WITH TS ISAIAS. THE 00Z TJSJ RAOB SOUNDING RESEMBLES TALL SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING SHOWING A DEEP MOISTURE COLUMN, AND A FREEZING LEVEL JUST BELOW 17,500 FEET, WITH OVER 2680 J/KG CAPE INDICATING ISAIAS HAS THE ABILITY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAIN AND DEVELOP IN AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH, THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ROGASH QPF PER THE TJSJ RAOB INDICATED A 9.25 IN. PW QUANTITY. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED RAINFALL RATES ARE 1.4 IN PER HOUR IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF BEST RATES NEAR 15.5N/65.5W PER THE 03Z PASS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OVER PUERTO RICO/USVI AS WELL. WARM TROPICAL RAINFALL PROCESSES RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE TROPICAL RAINFALL OVER THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0400-1200Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS TS ISAIAS MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN SEEN ON RECENT RADAR IMAGES SHOWS SPIRALING BANDS IMPACTING PR/USVI FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE TS CENTER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO MOVES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST PER THE NHC TRACK. EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE BANDS AND IMPACTS OF TS ISAIAS ON THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1865 6725 1781 6763 1781 6535 1861 6505 1863 6726 . NNNN |
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