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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/20 2050Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 IR/WV/VIS 2047Z; GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR; AMSU1930Z; RADAR; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT GOES 16 WV/IR AND HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF COOLING TOPS ALONG A LINE OF GROWING CONVECTION AND WV ANIMATION INDICATES PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP STREAM OF PUERTO RICO, ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN METRO. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND STREAM LINE ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INDICATES A PATTERN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONVERGENT OVER PR/USVI, AND SATELLITE DERIVED FIELDS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS, THE BANDS OF ISAIAS STILL ARE A MAJOR CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING THIS EVENING, AS THESE STORMS ALIGNED SUCH THAT AREAS WILL RECEIVE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS IS MOST CONCERNING. AMSU PW QUANTITIES ARE 2.4 INCHES OR HIGHER OVER PR AT THIS TIME. THE TJSJ SOUNDING HAD 2.5 INCHES PW AND 1350 J/KG CAPE. HYDROESTIMATOR DATA SHOWS INCREASING RAINFALL RATES MOVING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO IN THE BAND THAT IS GOING TO IMPACT PUERTO RICO IN THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT TROPICAL RAINFALL, EXCESSIVE IN AMOUNTS, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2050-0020Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RADAR SHOWS UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT WILL BE FLOWING ON A TRAJECTORY FROM SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TOWARDS THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREAS. RECENT SATELLITE SHOWING GROWING THUNDERSTORM TOPS WITH LIGHTNING INCREASING IN AREAS UP STREAM OF PR/USVI OUTSIDE OF THE RADAR RANGE, INDICATING HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN HAS FALLEN ALREADY, WILL MOST LIKELY GENERATE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING FOR THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6721 1855 6721 1854 6504 1788 6535 1788 6753 . NNNN |
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