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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/22/20 0205Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 IR/WV CH 13 0151Z 22082020, 00Z RAOB TJSJ, RADAR TJUA . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM LAURA APPROACHING THE REGION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED DEVELOPING COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE LATEST UPPER AIR RAOB SOUNDING DATA OBSERVED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH SURFACED BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 3500 J/KG AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 2.00" FROM TJSJ. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AND THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWED INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0400-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS MEDIUM WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS OVER THE ISLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGHER LIKELIHOOD EXISTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM LAURA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION PER THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY RUN INTO HIGHER TERRAIN AND OROGRAHPIC LIFTING WILL ENHANCE AND THEREFORE INCREASE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS OF THE ISLAND OVER AND ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1928 6786 1913 6416 1728 6377 1752 6777 . NNNN |
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