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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/23/20 0152Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH 13 IR/WV 0121Z 23082020, 00Z ROAB TJSJ, RADAR TJUA . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM TROPICAL STORM LAURA . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL STORM LAURA NOW TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PER THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS OBSERVED MOST OF THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE ISLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY NOW OFFSHORE AND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. UPPER AIR RAOB SOUNDING DATA HAS INDICATED DECREASING SBCAPE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY HOWEVER TPW VALUES STILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR 2.00". THE PROFILE ALTHOUGH NOT AS UNSTABLE AS EARLIER IN THE DAY REMAINS MOIST AND STRONG LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 35 TO 45KTS AIDED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTWARD OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND WHICH CREATED FLASH FLOODING EARLIER IN THE DAY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AS A RESULT OF ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA AND WHERE THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1919 6776 1914 6418 1734 6418 1735 6776 . NNNN |
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