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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/01/20 0351Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 0330Z;RAOB TJSJ;RADAR TJSJ 0324Z;AMSU/SSMIS 0210Z . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS STORMS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY, MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR BUOYANCY UPWARDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE 4000J/KG POTENTIAL, 2.11 PW -10 LIFTED INDEX FROM THE SAN JUAN 00Z SOUNDING. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR DATA SHOWED AN INCH PER HOUR INSTANTANEOUS RATE OF RAINFALL PER HOUR. GOES 16 SATELLITE RECENT IMAGES REVEALS A SUBTLE WAVE IN THE NW TO SE FLOW OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERNS, WITH COOLING TOPS ON INFRARED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO, AND A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO. UPSTREAM METAR OBSERVATION SAINT CROIX DURING THE RECENT PASSING OF A HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED A RATE OF ABOUT 3/4 INCHES TO 9/10 PER HOUR RECEIVING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.6 INCHES IN 42 MINUTES. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS A CELL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA OF PUERTO RICO. RADAR SHOW A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE SAN JUAN METRO 0342Z. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0350-0800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW APPROACHING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PUERTO RICO, SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IN SOME INSTANCES. SATELLITE DERIVED PW QUANTITIES ARE 2.4 INCHES PER AMSU SENSORS WITH SOME INDICATION OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1856 6716 1852 6501 1785 6532 1789 6753 . NNNN |
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