|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/27/20 0401Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 W 0340Z; RADAR 0353Z; AMSU 0330Z/BLTPW; RAOB 00Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OAHU AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT GOES WEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWS A DYNAMIC SET UP OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND A S/WV APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE S/WV WILL BE GENERATING PVA, ENHANCING UPWARD MOTIONS AS THE WAVE TRAVELS FROM SW TO NE ALONG A BROAD STREAM OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WV/VIS/IR SATELLITE ANIMATION. WITH PATTERNS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IN PARTICULAR, FOR WESTERN ISLANDS OF OAHU AND KAUAI, RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. DYNAMIC FORCING RESULTING FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID UPWARD MOTIONS. ENHANCED LIFT WITH THE S/WV THAT HAS TRAVELED FROM APPROXIMATELY 15N/168W 17Z TO 21N/163W 01Z, AND UPPER AIR OBS AT 00Z AT 850MB REVEALING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (SE 850 MB WINDS 00Z PHTO/PHLI WINDS NW DIRECTION), REVEALING ITS PRESENCE, RISING AIR CURRENTS WILL BE GENERATED. FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS, WITH 250 MB FLOW IS FROM THE SW, AND HIGHER VELOCITIES OVER THE BIG ISLAND INDICATING A JET MAX LEFT EXIT REGION FAVORABLE FOR DYNAMIC LIFT IS LIKELY PRESENT, UPWARD MOTION WILL BE AIDED. PW MOISTURE QUANTITIES ARE NEAR 2.25 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.9 INCHES OVER OAHU WITH AMSU RAIN RATES PER HOUR BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 INCHES, WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENTS OVER OAHU. RECENT RADAR INDICATES BETTER RAINFALL IS APPROACHING OAHU FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER OAHU IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE REST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0400-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...OAHU WILL RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS RECENT RADAR SHOWS AN APPROACHING AREA WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITH HIGHER DBZ LEVELS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF OAHU. FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AS ANOTHER S/WV SEEN IN MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES, UP STREAM OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TRAVELS ALONG THE AXIS OF MOISTURE, ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2225 15843 1887 15281 1886 15563 2223 16099 2223 16099 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|