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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/10/20 0630Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 WV/IR 0530Z; TJSJ RADAR 0540Z; AMSU 0440Z; RAOB 00Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LINE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS SEEN ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. LONG BANDS OF CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS PART OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONNECTED TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OPPOSED FROM WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS, AS 850 MB WINDS BELOW FLOWING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND WINDS ALOFT AT 250 MB FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG LINES WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A TREND OF COOLING OVER THE NE CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE DERIVED INFORMATION REVEALS A SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO, WITH REGIONS UP STREAM OF PUERTO RICO SHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX, WITH FAVORABLE PW QUANTITIES OF 2.6 INCHES PER AMSU ESTIMATES AND GPS VALUES NEAR 2.4 INCHES. GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR SHOWS A STRONGER SIGNAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION NEAR 18.5N/66.3W ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR SAN JUAN THAT IS ALONG AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIALLY THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SE CORNER OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0630-1230Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR AS OF 0613Z SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO, WHICH MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AS UP STREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FEEDS DEVELOPING STORMS RESULTING IN HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH FLASH FLOODING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RADAR ECHOES ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINES ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DEVELOP, POTENTIALLY BACK BUILDING AS RECENT RADAR AND IMAGERY SUGGESTS MAY NOW BE OCCURRING, AND THE PRECIPITATION, WHICH SEEMS TO BE FILLING IN, CONTINUES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6720 1855 6720 1853 6509 1790 6533 1789 6745 . NNNN |
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