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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/10/20 1300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 VIS/IR 11.2/WV 1240Z; AMSU 1130Z; TJSJ 12Z RAOB;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING PUERTO RICO/USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 16 IN THE VISIBLE SHOWS GROWING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. IR SAT IMAGERY REVEALS COLD TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG THE LINE OF CLOUDS ORIENTED NW-SE AS PART OF A LARGE SCALE SYSTEM, WITH A LONG LINE OF CLOUDS/WATER VAPOR CONNECTED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER WESTERN CUBA, THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO, WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CIRCULATION TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE WV AXIS, GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI. THE TJSJ BALLOON SOUNDING RESEMBLED A NARROW SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN, MEASURED PW QUANTITY NEARLY 2.6 INCHES AND 2000 J/KG CAPE. A S/WV SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LONG CHANNEL OF MOISTURE WILL AID UPWARD MOTION AS IT GENERATES PVA AHEAD OF IT, LEADING TO HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERALL. FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR CONCERN BECAUSE GROUNDS ARE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING RAINFALL DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT HAS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING ALREADY. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS CONDITION . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1300-1900Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS SEEN ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVING FROM THE ESE MOVING WNW THROUGH A BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO, IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON SATELLITE AND ON THE LATEST 1254Z TJSJ RADAR IMAGE; THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS ISLANDS OF PR/USVI, WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHING PUERTO RICO WILL LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING, CONSIDERING THE PRIOR CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT REGARDING RUNOFF OF EXCESSIVE RAIN, THAT WILL VERY LIKELY BE LEADING TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. TROPICAL DOWNPOURS CAN VERY WELL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6720 1855 6720 1853 6509 1790 6533 1789 6745 . NNNN |
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