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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/12/20 1401Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS;IR 11.2;1240Z AMSU;TJSJ RADAR 1356Z;FS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING EASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PUERTO RICO IS IN A ZONE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N/63W AND A CYCLONIC AREA OF ROTATION AT 15N/73W, WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW, COMING FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND AN AREA OF CONVECTION, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, APPROACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. GROUND CONDITIONS, ALREADY SATURATED AS HEAVY RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS HAS LEFT RUNOFF CONDITIONS SUCH THAT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN, MAY QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE RECENT SATELLITE DATA ESTIMATED PW QUANTITIES ON THE EAST END OF PR/USVI IS 2.40 INCHES COMPARING TO THE TJSJ BALLOON DATA OF 2.2 INCHES WITH 1325+ J/KG CAPE. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REMOTELY SENSING MOISTURE DATA SUPPORTING LESSENING MOISTURE; IN THE NEAR TERM FOR THE LATEST ACTIVITY UP STREAM OF THE EASTERN END OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO, SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY EASILY EXCEED GROUND ABSORPTION LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, AND LATER IN THE DAY IF MORE ACTIVE STORMS FORM. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-2000Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR AS OF 1345Z SHOWS WEAKENING REFLECTIVITY AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVES FROM THE ESE TOWARDS THE PUERTO RICO ON THE EASTERN END AS WELL AS THE USVI. BRIEFLY, RUNOFF FROM HEAVIER ELEMENTS WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO’S EASTERN END COULD GENERATE EXCESS RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES FORMING WOULD IMPACT OTHER AREAS OF PUERTO RICO, BUT FOR NOW SETTLED WEATHER IS THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6713 1852 6512 1788 6541 1788 6745 . NNNN |
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