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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/23/20 0524Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 IR,3.9um,10.3um;TJSJ RADAR 0448Z, TJSJ SOUNDING . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...POSSIBLE FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. MOIST FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE WIND PROFILE FROM THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING FROM TJSJ. UA ROAB SOUNDING ALSO OBSERVED MODEST CAPE VALUES AROUND 1700 J/KG AND HIGH TPW AROUND 2.20" SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROGRESSING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAT HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE BUT REPEAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURING OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND THAT EXPERIENCED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE FORECAST PERIOD. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0500-1000Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK IS POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1946 6810 1930 6419 1725 6409 1725 6813 . NNNN |
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