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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/18/20 1103Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES W 17 1040Z;PHTO RADAR 1100Z;SSMIS/AMSU 09Z;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG ISLAND, THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. GOES WEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN, AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18.0N/155.0W WITH CLOUDS SEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST IMPACTING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. RECENT SSMIS/AMSU REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENTS INDICATE PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES. THE PHTO SOUNDING FROM 00Z INDICATED MOISTURE QUANTITIES THAT WERE CLOSE TO SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB, WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SIMILAR OR EVEN INCREASING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING A FLUX OF WATER VAPOR STREAMING TOWARDS THE EAST SIDE OF HAWAII ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MOVING FROM ITS POSITION; THEREFORE, EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN MAUKA REGIONS, WITH WATER FLOW RATES IN STREAMS AND CANYONS RISING WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLE AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1100-1500Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AT 1056Z PHTO RADAR SHOWS APPROACHING HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. AS THESE SHOWERS APPROACH PONDING RAINFALL IS PROBABLE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION SEEN WITH INCREASING DBZ LEVELS IN APPROACHING CELLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALLOWS THE FLOW OF THESE STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST TO BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL RATES WILL BE INCREASING SHORTLY WITH A STEADY STREAM OF RAINFALL ALLOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO PERSIST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2248 15872 1868 15251 1874 15550 2245 16131 2248 16126 . NNNN |
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