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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/18/21 1102Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES17 1040Z; AMSU/SSMIS 0530Z;RADAR 0958Z;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES W 17 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WAVE ADVANCING FROM THE WEST MOVING TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION GENERATED BY AN EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL AID LIFT ALONG THE MOISTURE CHANNEL. AMSU/SSMIS PW ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. THE SATELLITE DERIVED FIELDS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER THE ISLANDS OVER OAHU AND MOLOKAI FAVOR LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD THE WV AXIS WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL UPWARD FORCING OVER THE CENTER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. UP STREAM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM WEST TO EAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EVIDENT ALONG THE MOISTURE CHANNEL ON GOES IMAGERY. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALING A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK POSITIONED FOR BETTER DYNAMIC LIFTING AND UPWARD FORCING; AS A CONSEQUENCE, HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT, WITH MORE RAINFALL OVER ISLANDS HAVING ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN AS INDICATED IN RECENT METAR OBSERVATIONS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1100-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL ELEMENTS OVER MOLOKAI WITH MORE ACTIVE CELLS OVER THE CENTER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE OF ENERGY WEST OF HAWAII WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. RADAR SHOWS MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS HAWAII IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2230 16056 2227 15813 1878 15303 1875 15558 2228 16061 . NNNN |
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