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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/19/21 0348Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 0330Z; AMSU/SSMIS 0230Z;RADAR 0341Z;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT GOES WEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOISTURE AXIS, GENERATING PVA AND SUPPLYING A MECHANISM FOR LIFT ALONG THE WV AXIS. THESE WAVES CAN BE SEEN AT DIFFERING LEVELS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY; FURTHERMORE, THE PATTERN ALOFT IS DIVERGENT AND DIFFLUENT, RESULTING DYNAMIC LIFT, ENHANCED UPWARD MOTIONS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE A MAXIMUM BETWEEN MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE CENTER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN AND FROM THE EAST, WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO MIGRATE. WITH PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE S/WV ENERGY TRANSITIONING THROUGH THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS, AND INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN MOST RECENT SATELLITE ANIMATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CONTINUE WILL ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0345-1245Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RADAR SITES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOWS THE FLOW FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, WITH RADAR ECHOES TO THE WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. IN RECENT RADAR RETURNS THERE ARE EMBEDDED HIGHER DBZ LEVEL WITHIN A MASS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ADVANCING FROM THE SW TOWARDS MAUI, MOLOKAI, KAHOOLAWE, LANAI. MESO SCALE AREAS OF ROTATION EVIDENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGES TRAVELING THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELDS WILL ENHANCE RATES OF RAIN. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM EARLIER RAIN, RECENT FLASH FLOODING WARNINGS POSTED, EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2226 15800 2223 15797 1875 15322 1875 15556 2225 16069 . NNNN |
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