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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/11/21 0104Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 0051Z/AHIM 00Z;RAOB PHLI/PHTO 00Z;RADAR 00Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING WESTERN ISLANDS OF OAHU AND KAUAI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17W SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL COUNTER CLOCKWISE ROTATION 21.5N/162.5W AND SW FLOW OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EVIDENT USING SATELLITE ANALYSIS IS GENERATING UPWARD MOTION IN AN UNSTABLE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED BY VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES AND ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR, RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRONOUNCED OVER THE BIG ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING UPWARD MOTIONS WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRESENT THERE AS WELL. UNDER 12K FEET, FREEZING LEVELS WITH WET BULB ZERO JUST ABOVE 10K, VALUES INDICATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, CLOSER TO SATURATED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATED IN THE 00Z PHLI BALLOON SOUNDING, A DRIER LAYER AT 700MB IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION DUE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. PHTO CAPE VALUES EXCEED 2200 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE, BUT WITH BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AN AXIS OF 326 K QUANTITY THETA E AIR RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN, IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, JUST WEST OF THE THETA E RIDGE. MOISTURE SENSING INSTRUMENTS ESTIMATE PW VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-2.0 INCHES. AMSU PW QUANTITIES ARE BEST OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR AS OF THE 00:20Z PASS OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECT ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0104-1000Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE SOUTH AND IS GENERATING FLASH FLOODING OVER OAHU. RECENT PHBK SFC METAR OBS SHOW HEAVY RAIN WITH PRESSURE FALLING RAPIDLY. MODEL OUTPUT LEAVES THE MID/UPR CIRCULATION STATIONARY, WITH HIGHER PW QUANTITY AIR SURGING S-TO-N AND OVER THE ENTIRE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN PERSISTENTLY. 0059Z RADAR SHOWS HEAVIER RAINFALL ELEMENTS APPROACHING KAUAI. EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOODING THE RESULT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2227 15835 1883 15291 1883 15559 2223 16101 2227 15881 . NNNN |
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