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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/13/21 0222Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES17 0150Z;RADAR 0211Z; AMSU/SSMIS 0110Z; RAOB; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN APPROACHES OAHU AND IS MOVING EASTWARD . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17 SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN AREA OF WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC UPPER CIRCULATION NEAR 23N/160W MOVES SSW AS PART OF A LARGER S/WV, CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE KAUAI CHANNEL, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITHIN A LINE OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING OAHU AND MOVING EAST-WARD. A SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRESENT OVER OAHU IS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF APPROACHING STORMS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE WAVE STRUCTURE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. UPWARD MOTIONS ENHANCED WITHIN A MOISTURE CHANNEL WITH PW QUANTITIES ESTIMATES 1.75 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0222-1000Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...OAHU WILL BE THE FIRST RECIPIENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE KAUAI CHANNEL. WITH A HISTORY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2.35 IN. PER HOUR WITHIN THIS LINE OVER KAUAI EARLIER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE IN OAHU, AND AFFECT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO THE EAST AS A LINE ON HEAVY RAINFALL, LIKELY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT; THE PHLI SOUNDING RESEMBLED A TALL-SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH A 1.88 IN. PW. THE PHLI SOUNDING HAD 1671 J/KG CAPE WITH A 1.5 IN. PW AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX OF -7C INDICATING BUOYANT MOTIONS WITHIN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PLENTY OF ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION, AND THE AIR IS BUOYANT ENOUGH FOR RISING MOTIONS WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2227 16015 2225 15770 1869 15345 1874 15553 . NNNN |
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