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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/14/21 0230Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-W 17 0221/HIM-8 Z;PHTO 00Z RAOB;SSMIS/AMSU;RADAR 0225;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DIVERGENCE ALOFT, STANDING WAVES, PERSISTENT RAINFALL, SOAKED GROUND RESULTING IN IMMEDIATE RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING, AS STATIONARY CONVECTION AND STREAMS OF RAINFALL IN MESO SCALE BANDS FLOWING OVER KAUAI AND A RELATIVELY FIXED AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE SE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE PHTO RAOB SHOWED UNDER 500J/KG CAPE AND OVER 1.5 INCHES PW, WITH SSMIS AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 1.75 INCHES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COUNTER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION JUST SW OF LANAI, AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH IS GENERATING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LEADS TO POSITIVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY, ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS. FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLE CONSIDERING THE SATURATED GROUNDS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INSTANT RUN-OFF. THE ENTIRE STATE OF HAWAII IS AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0830Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE BIG ISLAND ISLAND HAS A STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM ON THE NE SIDE LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL; FURTHERMORE, RADAR ECHO PATTERNS SHOWING A BACK BUILDING TENDENCY AND TRAINING AS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM, ELEMENTS EMANATING FROM THE STORM TRAVEL FROM SW-TO-NE IN IN A LINE OVER THE SAME AREA, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ON THE NE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FORCING AS RADAR ECHOES ARE SEEN IMPACTING THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OAHU WILL BE AFFECTED BY A STREAM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER IN THE OUTLOOK AS AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT OVER NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2229 16101 2223 15817 1888 15314 1888 15595 2224 16093 . NNNN |
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