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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/31/21 1849Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, TJUA RADAR, TJSJ SOUNDING . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PROGRESSING ACROSS THAT ISLAND THAT HAS ENABLED SYNOPTIC LIFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, INSTABILITY, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH TPW GREATER THAN 1.50" AND SBCAPE NEAR 1100 J/KG. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0000Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS IN PLACE TILL THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS IN THE EVENING. THE LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS IN PLACE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DURATION AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCURS OVER THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1887 6514 1804 6507 1749 6575 1747 6741 1787 6804 1841 6800 . NNNN |
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