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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/05/21 1842Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VIS AND WV IMAGERY OBSERVED A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AIDING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH SBCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND TPW NEAR 2.00". THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND NEW CONVECTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS IN THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST HOWEVER WITH THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT PROGRESS OVER THE ISLAND. A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVIDENT AND RECENT FLOOD ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE LOCAL NWS SAN JUAN OFFICE. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THAT EXPERIENCED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD EXPERIENCE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1887 6514 1804 6507 1749 6575 1747 6741 1787 6804 1841 6800 . NNNN |
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