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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/14/21 1857Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM A TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE AIDING IN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION WITH 12Z DATA EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3800 J/KG, A LIFTING INDEX OF -9 CELSIUS, AND TPW EQUAL TO 2.00". THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED A REGION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL, AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0100Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE TILL LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS APPEARING TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE WITH STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS THAT ARE PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND. THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND IS LIKELY OVER REGIONS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1867 6559 1855 6517 1818 6508 1769 6565 1752 6736 1797 6769 1838 6758 1866 6691 . NNNN |
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