|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/15/21 1425Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN, CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM A TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND DISTURBANCE ARE AIDING IN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IN TURN HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CURRENTLY BUT IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION WITH 12Z DATA EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3900 J/KG, A LIFTING INDEX OF -8 CELSIUS, AND TPW VALUES AROUND 2.27". THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CELLS DOWNSTREAM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2300Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TILL THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLAND BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND. THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVER MOST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TODAY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1867 6559 1855 6517 1818 6508 1769 6565 1752 6736 1797 6769 1838 6758 1866 6691 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|