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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/19/21 1914Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A LINE OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PROMOTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA SHOWS A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE MOISTURE AXIS PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH EARLIER 12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2150 J/KG, AS WELL AS A LIFTING INDEX OF -6 CELSIUS, AND TPW GREATER THAN 1.80". LIGHT TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND HAVE RESULTED IN SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2200Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DURATION AND EXACT COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1881 6567 1867 6521 1824 6510 1797 6526 1770 6602 1769 6719 1799 6766 1835 6766 1855 6745 1868 6670 . NNNN |
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